From: Suneel Kumar Appaji., FCA <appajiappaji@gmail.com>
Date: Mon, Jan 7, 2013 at 8:18 PM
Subject: Can anyone make it to VP position of ICAI from South in this term and especially from Hyderabad?
To:
Election Results are notified and now my analysis starts
Which two and who are they is million dollar question and I bring South into picture - after all am from south and then I bring in Hyderabad into Picture - after all am Hyderabadi as well
Date: Mon, Jan 7, 2013 at 8:18 PM
Subject: Can anyone make it to VP position of ICAI from South in this term and especially from Hyderabad?
To:
Election Results are notified and now my analysis starts
South
- There are 5 members re-elected and 2 members for the first time
- This term is the last term for for 4 members (JV, Raghu, VM and SK), as a row; may try again after giving next term break
- 1 member is eligible to be in the Council for 1 more term (Deva) and Two members are eligible for 2 more terms (Babu & Sekhar)
- So far Hyderabad / AP has never enjoyed the position of President since inception of CA Council
- Bangalore has enjoyed once (BP Rao) and Chennai several times
- Coimbatore has joined Bangalore once (GR)
- Kerala has also not enjoyed the top position till now
Council composition based on terms
- This term is last for Adukia, Pankaj Jain (PJ), Sanjeev Maheshwari (SM) from West
- This term is last for Abhijeet from East
- This term last for Fadnis, Anuj and VK Garg
- This term is last for CS Nada from North
- All other members, except above, are eligible to contest to Council next term
- In all, 12 members in the 22nd Council are not eligible to re-contest
- The above infers there will be fierce competition for the position of VP during the first 2 years of this term as they will not contest in the 3rd year as their elevation to President-ship is barred legally
- The above statement put in clear terms out of 12 persons only 2 can make it, if at all it happens.
Assumptions subject to ceteris paribus
- It is assumed that not just the 12 who are in the last term in a row but also others will contest for the position of VP during first and second year
- It is assumed that Abhijeet will not contest during the first year 2013-14 and will give his 1st preference to JV (it is natural to assume this because complete Deloitte supported JV in the election to Council; PR personally ensured the same, I have confirmed news); In reciprocation, JV will give his 1st preference to Abhijeet in 2014-15, if elected to top position or give 2nd
- Deva, it seems has announced that he will not contest for VP position during 2013-14 and will try his luck thereafter
- Am told, Murali never contested in the past for VP Position and therefore must have good equations with other voters both from south or elsewhere
- Region, Community & Caste (RCC is the abbreviation) of members play crucial role in these elections as well.
Important Note
- To get elected to VP position, the number of votes required following the same single transferable preferential voting system are (32/1+1) + 1 = (32/2)+1 = 16+1 = 17 - Value of each vote is 1
How can a member from South Can make it to VP position?
- He should get 17 votes at the end or lower depending upon circumstances
- which 17?
- In all probability, 4 will contest from south in the first year
- each of them get 1 vote at least of first preference
- JV will certainly get 1+1 (JV & Abhijeet) first preference votes
- JV will not get deva's vote; else Deva can never make it to the top position and further it is also felt, deva will not vote to any from south.......if no one comes from south in the first year, he can contest in the second year
- SK may get Sekhar's first preference vote in addition to his because of caste reasons
- I even assume Babu will not vote to any one from South and may contest in the second year as well as third year for the position of VP, as the case may be, because getting re-elected from Kerala is not assured unless he becomes VP in the third year. Else, even if he contests for the council position, irrespective of his contribution to the council, the chances are dim
- Further, no person from Kerala ever rose to the top position till now and Babu being a right person and person of such material, he should try his luck this term itself and should aim high
- Barring this getting first preference votes from others is not anticipated as there are several candidates from other regions
At this scenario, contestants from south totally depend on the second preference votes of members from other regions
Without going in detail, A close look at numbers & faces at west, east and central, assuming all the re-elected members contests and considering second preferences votes will / should go internally, one of the West members emerge to the top with 11 votes unless they cheat each other.
Thus, in the process of transfer of votes, if West works unitedly, it will make it to the position of VP....this is subject to below mentioned statements
I will send analysis of West members, in the next few days as to who among them will be possible VP
What are the chances for Hyderabad? during 2013-14 & 2014-15
- Knowing JV, his mentors, guides and his politics & strategies, I have a feeling that he may even get elected in the first year itself...beating West.........He can throw away all the thinking of poor mortals like me for a six......
- Smashing all the thinking of his opponents from west, north & central is a tiny game for JV & his team, in my opinion...... to substantiate this I ask one and all to recollect how he fared in elections to Council in 2012 itself wherein we all expected he will suffer in numbers because of Ravishankar, Ambika, Venkatram & GVV........but he secured more votes than previous time and emerged top among AP'ians
- JV has backing of Big 4, Past Presidents, Political support and good strategies which should pay a way to the top position
- JV is excellent in convincing others and thus gets his elevation .....and the same quality may help him in getting top position as well
- Deva is good & laddu man for all council members; thus may garner number of second & subsequent preference votes as a man of last choice of undisputed nature
- Deva is always lucky and his luck is none other than Lord Balaji - this was proved in the election to council as well - from 900+ votes, he reached quota
I leave it to your guess work - who will make it to VP from AP
If the counting of votes happen openly and each of the contestant knows how many votes he got, I am sure that will be a new beginning at ICAI - It is the primary duty of each of the Council member to state that let transparency start with knowing votes each contestant got and the pattern of voting
In 2012-13, VP election was under the observation of persons from Election Commission and let in this year, 2013-14, the process of counting be open so that who is who & what is what is made out
--
Suneel Kumar Appaji FCA
Director: Indian Institute of Politics Private Limited
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